Poll: Trump Voters React to Shutdown Showdown

Most Trump voters still support the President for the time-being, even if they view the outcome of the Shutdown Showdown as his loss, according to a survey by Ear to the Ground. The “Grassroots Pulse” survey of 2,700 primary and general election Trump voters was conducted January 25-27 in collaboration with Citizens for Self-Governance.

 
 

Approve of Ending the Shutdown

Trump Lost Showdown…

Trump voters are divided as to who won the shutdown showdown, but only 43% said President Trump could consider it a victory. 

60% of Trump voters approved of ending the shutdown. The fissure between primary and general election voters for Trump appears to have widened, with primary supporters more likely to say they supported him ending the shutdown (63%) vs. just half of the non-Trump Republican primary voters (50%). Those who voted for Ted Cruz in the primary were even lower in their support – just 46% said they supported ending the stalemate. 

 
Trump Voters' Support over Time.png

…AND COULD LOSE THE BASE

These voters gave him a 6.78 level of support on January 1, 6.71 today – but would score him 3.82 if he fails to secure border security funds, a drop of 43%. Female Trump primary voters would score him 3.97 in the future.

Donald Trump primary voters say their support for the President had waned slightly between January 1, 2019, to today, from a weighted average of 6.84 to 6.77 (on a seven-point scale), but said that if he fails to secure additional border security funds, that support would also drop 43% to a weighted average of 3.88. 

 

Voting GOP and Affiliating as GOP

 

Is the Federal Government More or Less Important

Trump WOMEN AND THE GOP

Women who voted for Trump in the primary are more likely to definitely vote Republican in the future and to identify as Republicans.

  • 85% of female primary Trump voters will definitely vote Republican

  • 78% of male primary Trump voters will definitely vote Republican

  • 70% of non-Trump primary voters will definitely vote Republican in the future

  • 71% of female primary Trump voters are Republican

  • 61% of male primary Trump voters are Republican

  • 52% of non-Trump primary voters are Republican

 

EFFECT OF THE SHUTDOWN ON OPINIONS OF FEDERAL GOVERNMENT

The shutdown showdown did influence perceptions of whether the federal government is important to the day-to-day lives of Republicans surveyed: 

  • 70% of primary Trump voters said they felt the federal government was less important as a result of witnessing the longest government shutdown; 

  • 17% said they didn’t know, and; 

  • 13% said they now feel the federal government was more important. 

THE TSA MAY HAVE ALSO LOST SOME OF ITS APPEAL

55% of Trump primary voters said the TSA is necessary for airport security, compared to 39% of non-Trump Republican primary voters who feel the federal government should be in charge of airport security. 

While Trump presidential voters had consistently different levels of opinion depending on whether they had voted for Trump or a different candidate in the primaries, they were united in failing to approve of the arrest of Roger Stone: 9 out of 10 did not support his arrest earlier in the week.